Maine Democrats likely run out of time to change Electoral College laws if Nebraska GOP acts
LINCOLNVILLE, Maine — As Nebraska Republicans consider changing state law to give Donald Trump an extra vote in the Electoral College this fall, their Democratic counterparts in Maine have little recourse to even the score.
The only two states that award Electoral College votes by district, Republican-leaning Nebraska and Democratic-leaning Maine, play an unusual role in presidential politics because their systems allow each party to have a chance of winning an electoral vote in a state where it would get nothing under the traditional winner-take-all system.
In 2020, Trump won one electoral vote in Maine’s rural 2nd Congressional District and is heavily favored to do so again, while Joe Biden won one in Omaha, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
Nebraska Republicans have tried unsuccessfully for years to change the state’s rules, sometimes citing how the system gives Nebraska more clout in national politics and fears that Maine Democrats would undo their work by switching to winner-take-all. And they have failed despite a recent push by Trump and other national Republicans this spring.
But the latest Republican push for a first-past-the-post system in Nebraska, with Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., lobbying state lawmakers on Trump’s behalf, comes after a key deadline in Maine that will make it nearly impossible for the blue state to counter any red-state move.
It takes 90 days for a law to take effect in Maine after it is signed into law, and Thursday marked 89 days before the Electoral College is scheduled to meet on Dec. 17, meaning it is already too late for the Maine legislature to switch to a first-round system under normal rules.
State law allows for “emergency” legislation that takes effect immediately, but activating that provision requires a two-thirds supermajority of support in both legislative chambers.
Democrats control both houses of the Maine Legislature, but they are far from having a supermajority in the House of Representatives. Even if every Democrat in the House wanted to counter Nebraska — which is far from certain — they would need more than a dozen Republicans to join them to reach the two-thirds threshold.
Democrats have a larger majority in Maine’s 35-seat Senate, but would still need at least a handful of Republicans to join them, along with all 22 Democratic members.
Maine Republican leaders have already signaled they have no intention of helping Democrats get rid of their unusual formula for awarding electoral votes.
“Maine is the gold standard for presidential elections in the United States,” House Minority Leader Billy Bob Faulkingham told the Bangor Daily News Thursday. “We should be trying to convince other states to use a more representative process like we have, not to go to first-past-the-post like other states are doing.”
It’s unclear whether Trump’s allies in the Nebraska Legislature will ultimately get the votes needed to change the law, especially since they abandoned a similar plan just months ago when Republican leaders realized they lacked support. But supporters of the measure say they believe they can silence some holdouts, especially if Trump applies some pressure.
If Nebraska can change its rule and Maine can’t, Trump could get an extra electoral vote — setting the stage for a specific close election scenario that would lead to a tie in the Electoral College, setting up a murky process for deciding the presidency in the House of Representatives, where Republicans would have the upper hand.
The scenario is plausible: If Vice President Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—her most important swing states, according to current polls—while losing the other swing states, she would win 269 Electoral College votes. That’s one vote short of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
Right now, the most likely place for Harris to find the extra vote she needs is Omaha’s congressional district, a closely divided district that Biden won four years ago by nearly 7 points.
But if Nebraska Republicans were to go winner-take-all, then in the same scenario where Harris won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and no other key states, the Electoral College would be deadlocked 269-269, with no winner declared.
The Constitution provides that Congress would decide in the event of a tie in the Electoral College after a new member is sworn in after the November elections. The Senate would select the vice president, and the presidency would be subject to a vote in the House of Representatives, but not under the usual rules.
In the House of Representatives, instead of one vote per member, each state delegation would have one, with the presidency going to whoever wins a majority of state delegations (at least 26). Regardless of which candidate controls the House next year, Trump would be the overwhelming favorite. Republicans control a majority of state delegations and are favored to maintain that advantage, even though majority control of the House itself is at stake.
Meanwhile, Republicans are favored to win the Senate this year, giving Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, Republican of Ohio, an advantage if the upper chamber were to decide the vice presidency.
None of this may happen.
Nebraska conservatives have tried several times in the past to move their state to winner-take-all but failed, most recently this spring when they lacked enough support to overcome a legislative filibuster.
“I think they’re a few votes short, so it would be tough,” Rep. Don Bacon, the Republican who represents the Omaha, Nebraska-based congressional district, said in Washington Thursday.
Bacon said that Nebraska and Maine’s method of awarding Electoral College votes is superior in theory, but not in practice when only two states do it, so he supports Nebraska moving to plurality voting.
“If that were the case for every state, I think it would be fair. But the fact that we’re one of two states hurts us in a state where the turnout is 60 to 40 Republican,” he said. “If you’re a Democrat, you love it. There’s a lot of money coming in. If you’re a Republican, you wonder why aren’t we doing what the other 48 states are doing?”
And unlike previous Republican attempts to change the rule in Nebraska, there no longer appears to be a good way for Maine — and thus national Democrats — to counter.
“Whether we can fight back or not, this is exactly why we voted for Maine to join the National Popular Vote Compact,” state Rep. Dan Ankeles, a Democrat, said Thursday on X. “Because this drama is a ridiculous and unfair way to choose a president.”
Alex Seitz-Wald reported from Lincolnville and Ben Kamisar from Washington, D.C.
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