The Middle East is on the brink after Hezbollah leader vows revenge and Israel launches strikes. Here’s what we know

CNN
—

Israel launched one of its most intense bombardments of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon this year on Thursday, hours after the militant group’s leader condemned the deadly twin-engine attacks that he said crossed “all red lines.”

Israel’s bold and coordinated attacks, which targeted Hezbollah members with explosives hidden in pagers and walkie-talkies, have once again brought the Middle East to the brink of a wider conflict, nearly a year after the October 7 attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas on Israel that led to the ongoing war in Gaza.

Attention now turns to the next moves by Hezbollah and Israel, with the United Nations Security Council scheduled to hold an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss the situation.

Uncertainty remains over whether Israel’s attacks are a precursor to a ground invasion across its northern border into Lebanon and to what extent Iran-backed Hezbollah, one of the region’s most powerful paramilitary forces, is capable of responding even though its leader has vowed that a “settling of accounts will take place.”

Here’s what we know.

In Lebanon, fear and panic have gripped residents as the attacks have upended daily life and led to deadly and horrific consequences. A surgeon told CNN that the recovery is long for many people left maimed or in critical condition after wireless devices exploded in their pockets or on their faces.

At least 37 people were killed in the attacks on Tuesday and Wednesday, including children, and nearly 3,000 were wounded. Hezbollah said at least 38 of its members had been killed since Tuesday afternoon, but did not provide further details.

In a speech Thursday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah condemned both attacks, calling them “massacres” that “crossed all red lines” because the devices exploded in public places, injuring civilians.

Although Hezbollah had suffered a major blow, it would have to be held accountable, he added, before vowing that the attacks would not end the group. The Hezbollah leader also warned Israel that fighting on the Lebanese front would not stop until hostilities in Gaza were over.

As Nasrallah spoke Thursday, Israeli warplanes flew over Beirut, dropping flares and rattling windows with a wave of sonic booms that raised fears of escalation in the Lebanese capital. Hours later, Israel launched a series of strikes in Lebanon, saying it had hit about 100 Hezbollah rocket launchers and “terrorist infrastructure sites.”

At the same time, Hezbollah said it had launched at least 17 attacks on military sites in northern Israel.

Israel has signaled its readiness to go to war with Hezbollah. Israel’s defense minister warned Wednesday that a “new era” of war was beginning, and the military confirmed that its commander-in-chief had “finalized approval of plans for the northern area” along the Lebanese border.

The shift north comes after Israel made the return of displaced residents to their homes near the northern border after being evacuated due to Hezbollah attacks a new war aim.

Hezbollah leader Nasrallah has hinted at retaliation for both attacks, but it is unclear what capacity the group might have to launch a counterattack if several of its members are injured, and key communications channels are no longer reliable.

Although Hezbollah appears weakened, it is still considered the most heavily armed non-state group in the world, with an increasingly sophisticated arsenal capable of inflicting considerable damage on Israel.

There are signs, however, that the already highly secretive group may have been pushed further underground. The usual public gathering – usually of senior party officials and supporters – to follow Nasrallah’s speech did not take place on Thursday.

Nasrallah’s speech – his first since the two waves of attacks – may have been pre-recorded.

But the Hezbollah leader – who has said the group’s leaders have been largely spared from attacks because they use older aircraft – has powerful backing in Iran.

Lebanon-based Hezbollah is part of a Tehran-led axis that spans Yemen, Syria, Gaza and Iraq and has been engaged in a simmering conflict with Israel and its allies for 11 months.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami reportedly told Nasrallah that Israel “will soon” face “a decisive and overwhelming response from the axis of resistance.”

The group also has a history of targeting Israel abroad, including a 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Argentina that killed 29 people, and attacks on Israeli diplomats in India, Georgia and Thailand in 2012, which Israel blamed on Iran and Hezbollah, though the group denied any involvement at the time.

Fears that Israel’s devastating war in Gaza could spiral into a wider regional conflict have intensified to varying degrees since Hamas launched its deadly campaign of killings and kidnappings on October 7.

The main players have at times seemed on the brink, but tensions have eased given the serious consequences of an all-out war in the Middle East.

But almost every week, a new violent incident occurs, putting the region on high alert again, with fears that an all-out war could engulf the entire region, as well as Israel’s main ally, the United States.

In August, Iran vowed retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, a day after a Hezbollah commander was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut.

The international community has been trying for months to calm tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Efforts will continue Friday with the emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.

While the Hezbollah leader has previously said he does not want a full-scale regional war, experts said he could now come under increased pressure to act after the series of explosions, and as Israel is determined to shift its military targets to its northern border.