2022 NFL Over/Under Win Total: Five Best Bets

Summer is the time to make longer-term investments in NFL betting. The Season Earnings Total is a great way to put your money where your mouth is for the upcoming season. It’s deferred gratification for payment, but it can be a lucrative way to win bets.

There are a few team win lines that definitely catch my eye for 2022.

– Philadelphia Eagles over 9.5

I feel like I’m missing something with the Eagles projection of 9.5 wins. They added premium help where they needed it most by bringing in WR AJ Brown. The running game and offensive line remain top notch. Jalen Hurts continues to progress at quarterback in an offense smartly suited to his particular skill set. There’s no real reason to think Hurts isn’t the franchise’s long-term QB in Philadelphia.

Defensively, the Eagles have veteran playmakers and leadership. They have some functional depth with promising youngsters in the mix. Looking at their schedule, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Eagles are the last team to lose a game in 2022. Barring some odd number of injuries or an unexpectedly bad play more than Hurts at QB, that’s a playoff team that should expect to win 11-12 games. Maybe more…

– Indianapolis Colts over 9.5

Betting on the Colts to hit double-digit wins means trusting Matt Ryan for revitalization in his first year away from Atlanta. He is covered by an underrated defense that is strong in the middle. Having one of the NFL’s best weapons in Jonathan Taylor also helps.

I like the way Indy’s schedule is organized. Two eminently winnable divisional road games in the first two weeks mean the Colts can build some momentum even before playing at home. They also draw most of their toughest non-AFC South opponents home. The depth of their skill stance worries me more than a little, enough that any bets here are conservative.

– Arizona Cardinals under 9.5

One of the reasons I like the Cardinals and under bets is because of the position of the line. It’s 9.5 at BetMGM, but Arizona is usually listed at 8.5 at most other major sportsbooks. Even this bottom line is still very tempting for precariously talented Cardinals.

It’s not the same team that got off to such a good start a year ago. The defense has more questions and the depth of the attack doesn’t look as impressive, especially in the running game. Of course, Kyler Murray as an MVP candidate can solve many problems. He has that kind of edge, and it’s manifested enough that I don’t blame fans for believing it. I’m not betting on it, literally. That precipitous drop from 8-1 to 11-6 last year certainly doesn’t seem like a fluke, certainly not after seeing the lifeless effort in the playoff loss to the Rams.

– Chicago Bears under 6.5

For my money, the Bears have the worst full roster in the NFL. Mix a rookie head coach, a rookie general manager who has already made a few personal missteps (three new players arrested) with the weakest receiving corps in the NFL and one of the thinnest defenses at all three levels, and it’s the bet I’m most confident in making. Hard to see this team finishing better than 4-13 unless Justin Fields is truly transcendent in his second season.

– New York Jets on 5.5

Betting on the Jets to outplay has been folly for a long time, and it could be again with error-prone Zach Wilson coming off a disappointing rookie campaign at QB. However, the Jets have quietly built up a pretty impressive young core on defense. The armament around Wilson looks better, and the young line in front of him has higher potential than he is constantly being played with. It’s a bit ambitious to predict the Jets will pick up six or seven wins in Robert Saleh’s second year as head coach, but I like their odds with their schedule and style of play.

– All lines are from BetMGM as of July 19

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